Publications & Work in Progress

Peer reviewed:

Lagodny, Julius, Julianna Koch, Rebekah Jones & Peter K. Enns, “State Policy Mood: Updated measures of over time dynamics.” (accepted; forthcoming in State Politics and Policy Quarterly)

Peter K. Enns, Julius Lagodny (2020): “Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model”; PS: Political Science & Politics, 2020 Presidential Election Forecasting symposium

Peter K. Enns, Julius Lagodny, & Jonathon P. Schuldt (2017): “Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters ”; Statistics, Politics and Policy, Volume 8, Issue 1.

Peter K. Enns, Julius Lagodny (2021): “Using Election Forecasts to Understand the Potential Influence of Campaigns, Media, and the Law in U.S. Presidential Elections”; University of Miami Law Review, Vol 75, No 2.

Work in Progress:

Lagodny, Julius, “Citizens in neighborhoods without citizens. The negative externalities of regressive citizenship regimes.”

Besco, Randy, Sergio Garcia-Rios, Julius Lagodny, Nazita Lajevardi, Kassra Oskooii & Erin Tolley, “Fight
or Flight: Effects of Explicit Racism on Minority Political Engagement.” (under review)

Flores-Macías, Gustavo A., Julius Lagodny, Jimena Valdez, “Far-right on the rise. The voters of VOX in
Spain.” (under review)

Lagodny, Julius & Mona Krewel “The Effects of Fact-Checking: How Fake News Coverage Can Influence
Political Campaigning in Small Media Markets in New Zealand.”

Besco, Randy, Sergio Garcia-Rios, Julius Lagodny, Nazita Lajevardi, Kassra Oskooii & Erin Tolley, “Video
Treatments in Online Survey Experiments.”

Lagodny, Julius & Pauliina Patana, “Immigrants in Politics: The Effects of Immigrant Minorities’ Presence
in Legislature.”

Lagodny, Julius, “Traders gonna Trade. Historical Trade Networks and Modern Economic Development,
1870-2015.”

Curated Data sets:

Replication data for forecast of US Presidential Elections 2020 (with Peter Enns): Forecasting the 2020
Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model
.

Migrazensus Germany 2021 (with Arndt Leininger): Number and share of eligible citizens with a migration
background per electoral district for Germany’s 2021 national election
.

The Washington Post – Monkey Cage:

Marc Debus, Thorsten Faas, Julius Lagodny Angela Merkel’s bloc lost ground in Sunday’s election. So who
won?
, 9/30/21.

Peter K. Enns, & Julius Lagodny: We predicted States Biden would win 100 days before Election, 11/12/2020

Thomas Davidson & Julius Lagodny: Germany’s far-right party AfD won the Facebook battle. By a lot. 09/26/17

Peter K. Enns, Jonathon P. Schuldt, Julius Lagodny, & Alexander Rauter: Why the polls missed in 2016: Was it shy Trump supporters after all? 12/13/2016

Other Media engagement:

Press Conference with Türkische Gemeinde Deutschland and Citizens for Europe for policy paper on the voting potential of immigrant-origin citizens (in German)

Germany’s diversity shows as immigrants run for parliament, Interview cited in Associated Press by Kirsten Grieshaber 9/22/2021.Also published (among others) in: The Washington Post, ABC News, New India Express (India), or the Mainichi (Japan)

Quoted in Infobae on why the polls did not predict such a close race, 11/08/2020

Interview with Marktforschung.de on the Presidential Elections 2020, 10/29/2020

Other Publications:

Gyamerah, Daniel; Lagodny, Julius; Leininger, Arndt und Yıldırım-Caliman, Deniz (2021): Advocating for Inclusion Policy Brief 2 — September 2021, Wähler*innen mit Migrationshintergrund als wahlentscheidender Faktor: Ihr potentieller Einfluss auf die Bundestagswahl 2021. Citizens For Europe (CFE) (Hrsg.), Berlin. (transl: Voters with a migration background as an electorally decisive factor. Their potential influence on the 2021 Bundestag Election)

Thomas Wencker, Christoph Trinn, Sebastian Cujai, Julius Lagodny & Natascha Pongratz (2014) Reise ins Ungewisse: Migration als Problem transnationaler Sicherheit. Ein Bericht über den Heidelberger Dialog zur internationalen Sicherheit 2013 in: Zeitschrift für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, Volume 7. (transl: A journey into the unknown: Migration as a problem of transnational security. A Report on the Heidelberg Dialogue on International Security 2013)