Immigrant-citizens in the German 2021 Elections

#VielfaltGewinntWahlen #DiversityWinsElections

The share of citizens with a migration background (immigrant-citizens) has never been larger in Germany. They can decide the Bundestag election in 2021. Together with the NGO Citizens for Europe, Arndt Leininger and I collected data on the share of imigrant-citizens in each federal election district for the 2017 and the 2021 German federal elections. For the first time, researchers and policy makes can access data on the share of citizens with a migration background on electoral district! We collected the data by accessing the German Micro Census from 2017 and 2018 in a data vault in Berlin. The estimates are based on ~1.5 Million respondents and is publicly available here on Harvard Dataverse.

Together with Daniel Gyamerah and Deniz Yıldırım-Caliman in cooperation with CorellAid we published a policy paper (in German) to inform the German public ahead of the election of the 2021 federal elections summarizing our findings:

“Eligible voters with a migration background could significantly influence the distribution of seats in the distribution of seats in the German Bundestag. […] In 167 out of 299 constituencies (56 percent), the number of eligible voters with an immigrant background exceeds the gap between the first- and second-place direct candidates in the last Bundestag election.”

Find the policy paper here. We presented our results in an online press-conference together with the Türkische Gemeinde Deutschland e.V. (Turkish Society of Germany). You can find a recording of the press conference here (in German). CorrelAid also used the data in an English blogpost visualizing the voting potential of immigrant-citizens in Germany here.

In relation to this publication, I was interviewed and quoted by the Associate Press. The story was widely spread internationally and syndicated by The Washington Post, ABC News, New India Express (India), or the Mainichi (Japan) among many others.

Together with Thorsten Faas and Marc Debus I also reflected on the outcomes of the German elections in the Washington Post Monkey Cage.

Map of all election districts in which the number of citizens with a migration background is larger than the number of votes between the winner of the district and the candidate with the second-most votes in the last federal election in 2017.