In this section you can find an overview of my peer reviewed publications, curated data sets, as well as work in progress. A lot of my work focuses on small area estimations using multi-level regression & poststratification methods (MRP). Most of my work focuses on Germany and the US using public opinion and micro-level aggregated data to measure public mood and political views. In addition, I am working on survey experiments using video treatments in Canada and the US, fake-news social media analysis of the New Zealand election, and the emergence of a far-right party in Spain.
You can find a selection of my peer reviewed work and curated datasets below.
Lagodny, Julius, Julianna Koch, Rebekah Jones & Peter K. Enns, “State Policy Mood: Updated measures of over time dynamics.” (accepted; forthcoming in State Politics and Policy Quarterly)
Peter K. Enns, Julius Lagodny (2020): “Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model”; PS: Political Science & Politics, 2020 Presidential Election Forecasting symposium
Peter K. Enns, Julius Lagodny, & Jonathon P. Schuldt (2017): “Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters ”; Statistics, Politics and Policy, Volume 8, Issue 1.
Peter K. Enns, Julius Lagodny (2021): “Using Election Forecasts to Understand the Potential Influence of Campaigns, Media, and the Law in U.S. Presidential Elections”; University of Miami Law Review, Vol 75, No 2.
Curated Data sets:
Replication data for forecast of US Presidential Elections 2020 (with Peter Enns): Forecasting the 2020
Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model.
Migrazensus Germany 2021 (with Arndt Leininger): Number and share of eligible citizens with a migration
background per electoral district for Germany’s 2021 national election.
Work in Progress:
Lagodny, Julius, “Citizens in neighborhoods without citizens. The negative externalities of regressive citizenship regimes.”
Besco, Randy, Sergio Garcia-Rios, Julius Lagodny, Nazita Lajevardi, Kassra Oskooii & Erin Tolley, “Fight
or Flight: Effects of Explicit Racism on Minority Political Engagement.” (under review)
Flores-Macías, Gustavo A., Julius Lagodny, Jimena Valdez, “Far-right on the rise. The voters of VOX in
Spain.” (under review)
Lagodny, Julius & Mona Krewel “The Effects of Fact-Checking: How Fake News Coverage Can Influence
Political Campaigning in Small Media Markets in New Zealand.”
Besco, Randy, Sergio Garcia-Rios, Julius Lagodny, Nazita Lajevardi, Kassra Oskooii & Erin Tolley, “Video
Treatments in Online Survey Experiments.”
Lagodny, Julius & Pauliina Patana, “Immigrants in Politics: The Effects of Immigrant Minorities’ Presence
Lagodny, Julius, “Traders gonna Trade. Historical Trade Networks and Modern Economic Development,